How Business School Actually Helped My TCG Business (Yeah, I Know, Crazy)

I finally used something from business school. I did the math, and it’s kinda stupid. Turns out financial forecasting and opportunity cost actually apply to this TCG distro system.

Financial Forecasting

• We used collector booster preorder prices as a proxy for how popular each set is. Higher preorder price = higher demand = higher resale revenue.

• Then we factored in risk by assuming those preorder prices drop about $100 at release. Because hype dies faster than a Bandai game.

• With that, we projected our revenue for each future set.

Opportunity Cost

• If I burn $100 to sell a $1,000 case, it counts as $1,000 spend in the system. That unlocks more allocation later. $100 is the cost of that opportunity.

• On Spider-Man, that’s a 2.7x revenue-to-burn ratio. Burn $100, get $271 back.

• On Avatar, it’s closer to 1.9x. Not bad, not great.

• On Lorwyn, that’s currently projected around 1.1x. I’m basically dumpster diving.

But here’s the problem. If I skip the weak sets (will Lorwyn be weak?), the other guys don’t. They keep their spot at the table. I don’t. So when the good set hits, I get scraps. That’s another opportunity cost: it’s not all about what I burn. It’s also about what I lose by sitting out.

Happy Customers

Here’s the best part. While I’m burning $100 on cases (via discounts, shipping, etc), my customers actually get an increasingly better deal. These are lower than distro open order prices, and much lower than TCGplayer prices.

• I sold Outlaw of Thunder Junciton boxes for $111.83 (TCGPlayer price: $129), and threw in a $20 store credit for future purchases.

• I sold Assassin’s Creed Beyond Booster Displays for $92.33 (TCGPlayer price: $114.71) and threw in that same $20 store credit.

• I absolutely suck at social media, and mentioning this deal still got me 4,000 views on TikTok and some sales.

Happy Distro

This strategy helps distro move slower-moving product. When everyone and their gas station is obsessed with getting the latest product for under MSRP to immediately flip, this helps differentiate you from the competition. And you don’t have to beg for this slow-moving product.

Happy Me

I burned money to make distro and customers happy, and my Magic the Gathering spend outpaces my competitors because of it. I get more allocations for future banger sets, where I actually can make some money (still selling below TCGPlayer prices, of course!)

Also, coming up with a way to USE what competing stores completely ignore is a competitive advantage.

WARNING!

This EXACT method I used won’t work for everyone, due to how allocations are “locked in” earlier for most people. This is partially why I’m able to talk about this. My current situation is unique. The math changes slightly for other stores.

The Technical Analysis

This is an summary of the work, leaving out mind-numbing math parts.

From: Jesse (HappyTigerGaming.com)
Date: August 31, 2025

1. Overview

I run an online TCG store. My primary constraint is product allocation. I cannot get enough high-demand product to match market demand. I am exploring strategies to increase MTG distro spend, evaluate allocation efficiency, and quantify ROI for spending money to accelerate product access.

We analyzed Magic the Gathering allocations, revenue per set, and the cost/benefit of increasing distro spend via “burning money” to gain extra allocation.

2. Key Observations

• Allocation is proportional to distro spend: the more I spend, the more product I receive, relative to total distro spend.

• Final Fantasy Set (June 13, 2025): $1,229 spent by allocation lock-in date → $829 in MSRP products → $2,968 revenue.

• Edge of Eternities Set (Aug 1, 2025): $2,768 spent by allocation lock-in date → $580 in MSRP products → $668 revenue.

Insight: Allocation depends on my relative share. Even if I spend more, if competing stores increase their spend faster, I lose allocation.

3. Break-even Spend

• Break-even = minimum spend to maintain allocation share from a previous set.

• Linear projection (conservative estimate) for Sep 26, 2025 (Spider-Man), Nov 21, 2025 (Avatar)10, and Jan 23, 2026 (Lorwyn Eclipsed).

Takeaway: As distro spend rises, the dollar-for-dollar revenue drops. You need more spend to maintain the same allocation share, but each $1 spent produces less revenue.

4. Revenue Per MSRP Analysis

• Multiplier = Revenue / MSRP allocation.

• Spider-Man (pre-order popularity proxy): 2.43×

• Avatar: 2.47×

• Revenue per $ spend falls as break-even rises:

  • Spider-Man: $1 spent → $0.28 revenue

  • Avatar: $1 spent → $0.20 revenue

  • Lorwyn: $1 spent → $0.15 revenue

Insight: The later the set or the higher the distro spend, the less efficient each additional dollar is at generating revenue.

5. High Inventory Turnover / “Burning $100” Analysis

• Strategy: spend $100 to increase distro spend by $1,000 → higher allocations.

• Extra MSRP gained (Spider-Man) = 0.117 × $1,000 ≈ $117

• Revenue from extra MSRP = $117 × 2.43 ≈ $285

• Revenue-to-burn ratio = $285 / $100 ≈ 2.85×

• Avatar (Nov 21) revenue-to-burn ratio ≈ 1.91×

Fact: Even if collector booster pre-order prices drop $100 upon release, the Spider-Man set revenue-to-burn ratio remains ≈ 2.71×, still a positive play. Avatar drops to ~1.91× but remains marginally positive.

Conclusion: The strategy of “burning money to increase spend” is worth it on high-popularity sets (Spider-Man), less compelling on lower-demand or late-cycle sets (Avatar, Lorwyn).

6. Final Thoughts

• Money spent must directly generate more revenue than it costs.

• Spider-Man is a no-brainer: spend $100 → gain $285 revenue.

• Avatar is marginal.

• Later sets (Lorwyn) are mostly opportunity cost traps.

• Keep our eye on break-even spend trends, revenue multipliers, and popularity proxies — this is your scoreboard for allocation ROI.

Conclusion

Who knew, something I learned in business school would actually help my TCG business. I’m thinking about breaking down BASIC strategies that can actually be used by newer sellers.

I have a passion for business just as much as TCG. I’m thinking of starting a series where I help other (beginner) sellers with problems they have. Until then, I’ll see ya next time.

Your chaotic good caffeine gremlin and cardboard addict,

Jesse.